Iraq Revisited

In the wake of the recent passage of a timetable for removal of troops in Iraq (and its subsequent veto), Iíve been thinking about the current state of things. And, Iíve come to a few conclusions. First:

What weíre doing now isnít working, and thereís nothing we can do to fix it

The recently passed surge isnít going to do anything. Itís incredibly evident that unless we place somewhere in the range of 300,000+ troops, nothing is going to quell the recent rash of sectarian violence. Which brings me to my second conclusion:

The troops there right now are dying while accomplishing nothing

Itís no secret that troops there are dying every day, and will continue to do so. And with regards to my first conclusion, itís pointless. Which brings me to my third conclusion:

The sooner we withdraw the troops, the better

Theyíre simply dying needlessly. The sooner we get them out of there, the fewer casualties we will incur. Itís as simple as that. However, there are a few facts which must be pointed out.

Once we are gone, the sectarian violence will only grow

The Iraqis donít want us there, but thereís no disputing that the American troops are providing far and away the largest police force in Iraq. The Iraqi police force is already extremely corrupt, and violence will only grow exponentially once we leave. This is especially true given:

The Iraqis are no closer to drafting a constitution than they were when we first invaded

Itís still the same dispute that has been a problem since the beginning. The Shia comprise the large majority of the population, and therefore largely control the democratically elected government. The majority of the oil revenue comes from largely Shiite regions. The Sunnis and Kurds want a share of the oil profit, but the Shia feel otherwise. The longer there exists a political stalemate,

Involvement by Iran and Syria in the political/military process is inevitable

Sunnis will seek aid from fellow Sunnis (Syria, Saudi Arabia) and Shiites will seek aid from fellow Shiites (Iran). At this point, it will become a full-blown civil war within Islam. At which point,

The Americans, and hopefully a larger alliance, will have to redeploy troops in the Middle East in order to quell the violence

This time, it wonít be about weapons of mass destruction, it wonít be about terrorism, and it wonít be about Al-Qaeda. Itíll be about trying to stop World War III. I only hope that we have people in power intelligent enough to see what is really at stake here, instead of people just blindly saying, ďWell, we havenít had a terrorist attack on American soil since we invaded.Ē Well, why should there be when more American soldiers have been killed in Iraq than died on September 11th?

Perhaps we will need to redraw borders, perhaps more than the Iraqi regime will end up being toppled. All I can definitively say is that whether we stay or not, war in Iraq will be a mainstay in the news for at least another 10-15 years.